Thunder vs. Warriors: NBA Predictions, Odds and Betting Insights (Dec 2, 2025)

The Oklahoma City Thunder, a veritable force at 20-1, clash with the Golden State Warriors (11-10) tonight. The Chase Center in San Francisco sets the stage for this intriguing matchup. Tip-off’s slated for 11 p.m. ET. Let’s dive into the Thunder vs. Warriors odds, analyze key injuries, and offer some NBA picks and predictions.

OKC edged out a win in their previous encounter this season, dominating the Warriors 126-102 on November 11. The Thunder were 8.5-point favorites then. The NBA landscape shifts quickly, though.

The Thunder are riding a 12-game winning streak. Sunday saw them snag a 123-115 road victory. However, they failed to cover a hefty 11.5-point spread. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to impress, dropping 26 points. Chet Holmgren continues to be a force, contributing 19 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 blocks.

Golden State overcame the New Orleans Pelicans 104-96 Saturday, also failing to cover as 10-point favorites. Jimmy Butler had an impressive outing, accumulating 24 points, 10 assists, and 8 rebounds. Gary Payton II chipped in 19 points and 11 rebounds off the bench. The Warriors’ recent form? A shaky 2-4 straight up and a concerning 1-5 against the spread in their last six outings.

Thunder at Warriors Betting Odds: What the Numbers Say

Per BetMGM Sportsbook, the current NBA odds paint a clear picture:

Moneyline (ML): Thunder -625 (bet $625 to win $100) | Warriors +450 (bet $100 to win $450) Against the Spread (ATS): Thunder -11.5 (-115) | Warriors +11.5 (-105) Over/Under (O/U): 222.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

These odds reflect OKC’s dominance. Yet, double-digit spreads can be tricky, especially in the NBA.

Injury Report: Key Absences and Question Marks

Injuries play a significant role. Here’s the latest:

Oklahoma City Thunder:

Alex Caruso (quadriceps): OUT Luguentz Dort (groin): OUT Isaiah Hartenstein (calf): OUT

Golden State Warriors:

Jimmy Butler (gluteus): Questionable Stephen Curry (quadriceps): OUT Draymond Green (foot): Probable Al Horford (back): OUT De’Anthony Melton (knee): OUT

Curry’s absence undeniably impacts the Warriors. Butler’s questionable status adds another layer of uncertainty.

Thunder vs. Warriors: Expert Picks and Predictions

Prediction: Thunder 121, Warriors 118

Frankly, it’s tough to envision a Curry-less Warriors squad defeating this Thunder juggernaut, even with home-court advantage. OKC is playing some serious basketball.

That being said, the Thunder’s moneyline is simply not worth considering at -625. The value isn’t there.

My lean is toward the home team. I’m betting on the WARRIORS +11.5 (-105) to cover. The Thunder, despite their record, have looked slightly vulnerable recently. Consider their narrow 7-point win against the Blazers and a mere 4-point victory over the Suns. OKC’s ATS record over their last 10 games sits at a mediocre 4-6.

As for the total, the Warriors have trended toward the over, going 6-4 O/U in their last 10. OKC is split at 5-5. Last month’s contest between these teams barely cleared the Over at 227.5. This total feels low. Take the OVER 223.5 (-110).

Final Thoughts

Analyzing these NBA matchups requires a nuanced approach. It’s about more than just looking at records. Consider injuries, recent performances, and even the unquantifiable “feel” of a team. The Warriors, despite their struggles, are a proud team playing at home. Expect a fight. But ultimately, the Thunder’s firepower should prevail. Still, 11.5 points is a lot to cover. It is always wise to consult multiple sources to inform your choices.

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Keywords: Thunder vs Warriors, NBA predictions, NBA odds, betting insights, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Warriors injury report, Thunder ATS