Ugandans are heading to the polls in an election that is widely expected to extend President Yoweri Museveni’s 40-year rule, sparking concerns about potential crackdowns and the future of democracy. The incumbent president faces a significant challenge from singer-turned-politician Bobi Wine, marking a crucial moment for the nation.

President Museveni, who has been in power since 1986, is running on a platform of “Protecting the gains,” aiming to reassure voters of stability and progress. However, rights groups and international monitors have raised alarms about the pre-election environment, citing accusations of arrests, abductions, and intimidation directed at the media and opposition supporters.

Bobi Wine, whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, is making his second presidential bid after a tumultuous 2021 campaign. The 43-year-old opposition leader has campaigned under challenging circumstances, often speaking of the race as a “war” and emphasizing the widespread desire for change among millions of Ugandans.

Featured snippet paragraph: The main question on many Ugandans’ minds is how the election will unfold given the widespread fears of violence. Many are concerned about a repeat of the bloodshed experienced in the 2021 elections, which left citizens fearful of losing their lives and possessions.

There are palpable fears among Ugandans of a recurrence of the violence that marred the 2021 elections. Residents like Winnie Promise Nantume in Kampala have expressed deep-seated anxiety, recalling the loss of lives and property that frightened many.

The electoral landscape in Uganda is also being viewed within the broader context of democratic erosion in East Africa. Recent elections in neighboring Tanzania were marred by violence and rigging allegations, while Kenya has also seen deadly protests since 2024.

At 81 years old, President Museveni is one of Africa’s longest-serving leaders, having navigated the political landscape for decades. A significant portion of Uganda’s population, over 70 percent, has grown up knowing only his leadership, shaping their perceptions of national history and governance.

For many, Museveni is still revered as the leader who brought Uganda out of post-bush war chaos in the 1980s. Despite ongoing poverty affecting one in six Ugandans, some voters, like a former teacher named Innocent, believe he is still the best candidate to maintain stability.

Some political analysts suggest that the current elections may serve as a “shadow play,” with the real focus being on the post-election transition. The questions surrounding succession and the future leadership of the country are paramount.

Whispers of succession are growing, particularly concerning Museveni’s son, army chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba. While he has not overtly declared his intentions, his influence over the security forces is noted, especially as his father’s activities scale back.

Bobi Wine continues to be a significant figure challenging the status quo, and his rallies have drawn impressive crowds, signaling a strong base of support. His supporters are determined to fight for a win this time around, inspired by the youth’s readiness for change.

The National Unity Platform (NUP), Wine’s party, has faced significant pressure. Reports indicate that hundreds of NUP supporters have been arrested in recent months on charges ranging from property damage to inciting violence, highlighting the challenging operating environment.

David Lewis Rubongoya, the NUP’s secretary-general, has detailed the ongoing arrests and abductions of party leaders, underscoring the risks involved in challenging the incumbent government. The situation remains tense as the nation awaits the election results.

Kizza Besigye, another prominent opposition figure who has challenged Museveni multiple times, was reportedly kidnapped in Kenya in 2024 and later reappeared in a military court in Uganda, where he remains on treason charges.

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