Thanksgiving Dinner 2025: Are Lower Prices the Whole Story?

The headlines suggest a slight reprieve: Thanksgiving dinner might cost a little less this year. The American Farm Bureau pegs the average feast for ten at roughly $55, a modest dip from 2024. Yet, before you breathe a sigh of relief, it’s worth digging deeper.

I’ve been watching these trends for years, and a simple average often obscures a more complex reality. What’s driving these apparent savings? Are we really getting the same value?
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Retailers like Walmart and Target are pushing Thanksgiving meal deals, some promising dinner for under $40. However, the devil’s in the details. Scrutinize those kits: are they swapping name brands for store brands? Are fresh ingredients taking a backseat? CNN points out that Walmart’s kit includes fewer items and more store-brand goods than last year. Smart marketing, perhaps, but is it genuine savings?

The Farm Bureau highlights an interesting point: turkey accounts for a smaller piece of the Thanksgiving pie than it has in over two decades. This could explain some of the lower average costs, and is thanks to turkey prices declining this year.

It’s not all rosy. Side dish staples, like cranberry sauce and some rolls, may cost significantly more, even with lower frozen vegetable prices. Supply chain hiccups and unforeseen weather events, like hurricanes impacting sweet potato crops in North Carolina, are impacting costs, too.
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Then, there’s the taxman. A dozen or so states still levy sales taxes on groceries, which can inflate the final bill considerably. The recent elimination of the grocery tax in Kansas offers a glimpse of potential relief. It reminds everyone that where you shop matters just as much as what you buy.

And let’s not forget tariffs. While some have been rolled back, the lasting effect of the previous administration’s trade policies still ripples through the food supply chain, impacting canned goods and other packaged items. The burden disproportionately affects those relying on SNAP benefits, particularly in light of recent shutdowns that stalled access to critical funds.

Thanksgiving falls late this year, squeezing the holiday shopping season. While the headlines declare potential savings on Thanksgiving dinner, a careful examination reveals a more nuanced picture. Sales taxes, tariffs, and strategic substitutions in meal deals add complexity. This Thanksgiving, the savviest shoppers will scrutinize every line item to ensure they’re truly getting a better deal.

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Keywords: Thanksgiving dinner 2025, Thanksgiving dinner prices, Thanksgiving meal deals, grocery taxes, turkey prices, food tariffs, SNAP benefits, Thanksgiving shopping season