Thanksgiving Dinner Costs Less in 2025: A Reason to Celebrate?

The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) tells us that the cost of Thanksgiving dinner is dropping for the third year running. At $55.18 for a feast serving ten, or about $5.52 per person, this marks a 5% decrease from 2024.

That headline sounds like good news, right? Well, before we break out the cranberry sauce, let’s dig a little deeper.
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It’s worth noting that those three years of declines don’t completely erase the sharp price hikes that culminated in a record-breaking $64.05 spend in 2022. We’re still paying more than we were a few years ago.

Turkey, the centerpiece of most Thanksgiving tables, has become cheaper, and that certainly helps. The average price for a 16-pound frozen turkey now sits at $21.50, which translates to $1.34 per pound – a 16% dip from the previous year. Demand has shifted, but flocks hit by the bird flu are still being rebuilt, according to the AFBF economist Faith Parum, Ph.D.. This balance should help secure more affordable turkey for families.

Volunteers from the Farm Bureau collected prices during the first week of November. Stores frequently offer discounted whole turkeys closer to Thanksgiving, which might push prices down a little bit further. Recent USDA data seems to support this trend.
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The Good and the Not-So-Good News on Your Thanksgiving Plate

This shopping list included staples like turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls, peas, cranberries, a veggie tray, and pumpkin pie. Here’s the thing: not every item is cheaper.

While dinner rolls and stuffing mixes are easier on the wallet due to falling wheat costs, items like fresh vegetables and sweet potatoes spiked. A veggie tray is up over 61%, and sweet potatoes jumped by 37%. Natural disasters, such as hurricane damage in North Carolina (the top sweet potato producer), contributed to this rise. Fresh produce prices are also naturally volatile. Supply chain hiccups caused by weather, labor shortages, transportation, or regional issues can trigger short-term price jumps. Plus, the ongoing lack of farm laborers and escalating farm wages factor into increased produce expenses. It’s important to remember that even small increases in low-cost items affect year-to-year price change percentages.

Zippy Duvall, the AFBF President, mentions that while Thanksgiving meal costs have dipped slightly, many families are still concerned about food prices, especially in rural areas. He also pointed out the increasing pressure on farmers, and we need to be mindful of this because losing local farms affects our food security and drives consolidation of the industry.

Thanksgiving Dinner: A Regional Affair

Interestingly, the cost of a classic Thanksgiving meal varied across different regions of the United States. The South enjoyed the most affordable dinner at approximately $50.01. The Midwest wasn’t far behind at around $54.38, while the Northeast demanded roughly $60.82, and the West cost approximately $61.75.

What’s Missing From This Picture?

While the AFBF survey offers a snapshot, it’s important to remember that it is just that – a snapshot. Individual shopping habits, brand preferences, and the choice between fresh versus frozen ingredients can all affect the final cost. Also, I’ve noticed a gradual shift in what people consider a “traditional” Thanksgiving meal. The Farm Bureau acknowledges this by also pricing out an expanded menu featuring boneless ham, Russet potatoes, and frozen green beans. This increases the total cost to $77.09.

Looking Ahead: The Bigger Picture for Food Prices

Despite the slight dip in price this year, broader economic forces are in play. Factors like inflation, supply chain resilience, and the future of farming will continue to shape what we pay for food. The food industry is changing, and that influences the cost of feeding families. The challenge involves dealing with these factors to find a balance between what it takes to farm and how to support families at mealtimes.

It is good news that the cost of Thanksgiving dinner is going down. Even so, let’s not lose sight of the bigger picture. The factors impacting our food supply are still there, and we should recognize that the economics of agriculture impact us all.

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