A sophisticated supercomputer simulation has projected the final standings for the 2025-26 Premier League season, revealing a tight race at the top and a stark prediction for teams at the bottom.
Arsenal is forecast to emerge as champions, narrowly edging out Manchester City in a battle that is expected to go down to the wire. The Gunners, currently leading the league, are given a dominant 68.7% chance of lifting the trophy, despite a recent challenging period exacerbated by injuries.
Manchester City, the reigning champions, are predicted to finish approximately six points behind Arsenal, with their chances of retaining the title standing at a considerably lower 24.4%. Their pursuit of a title defense will hinge on crucial upcoming fixtures, including a home tie against Arsenal in April.
Aston Villa, currently in third place, is expected to fade in the latter half of the season but is still favored to secure a Champions League spot. Unai Emery’s side is anticipated to finish in third, demonstrating resilience despite the simulation’s projection of a gradual decline in their title aspirations.
Reigning champions Liverpool are facing a difficult season, with the supercomputer giving them a mere 0.97% chance of defending their crown. Despite a slow start, there is confidence that Arne Slot’s team will recover to finish fourth, battling with Chelsea for the final Champions League qualification spot.
Crystal Palace is predicted to finish sixth, likely securing a Europa League place, a respectable outcome for the chasing pack. Manchester United, despite being tipped for seventh, hold a marginal 0.01% chance of winning the title, a testament to the simulation’s granular predictions.
Newcastle United is projected to finish eighth after a slow start, a reversal of fortunes from Sunderland’s predicted fall from sixth to twelfth. Brighton & Hove Albion, Brentford, and Everton are expected to compete for a Conference League berth.
The relegation battle is predicted to be intense, with a threshold of 40 points likely sufficient for survival. Tottenham Hotspur is expected to be comfortably clear of the drop zone, avoiding the precarious position they found themselves in last season.
Fulham and Bournemouth are anticipated to land in mid-table obscurity, well clear of the relegation zone. However, the simulation forecasts a fierce fight for survival among Nottingham Forest, Leeds United, West Ham United, Burnley, and Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Nottingham Forest and Leeds United are expected to narrowly escape relegation. West Ham United and Burnley are predicted to fall short, finishing with points totals well below the survival mark, facing the prospect of dropping to the Championship.
Wolverhampton Wanderers are starkly predicted to finish at the bottom of the table, accumulating a mere 19 points. This forecast puts them on course to potentially break Derby County’s record for the lowest-ever Premier League points total.
