Nigeria’s Q3 GDP: Beyond the Oil Barrel

Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.98% in the third quarter of 2025, and while that’s welcome news, dissecting the driving forces reveals a more intricate picture. The headline number, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), buries a narrative of diversification, one that’s been a long time coming.

The non-oil sector clearly took the lead, responsible for over 96% of the nation’s economic output. Agriculture and services stepped up, suggesting a structural evolution that lessens our historical reliance on crude oil. It’s easy to get lost in macroeconomics and metrics, yet it is important to note that the reality is there are still long-term structural issues to resolve.

Agriculture held its position as the bedrock, contributing just over 31% to real GDP. Crop production stood tall within agriculture, making up 23.06%. Yet, we also see livestock adding another 6.18%. The sector’s influence on both national output and food security can’t be overstated. Anyone familiar with Nigeria understands the critical role farming plays. The growth rate in crop production increased to 3.79% from 2.55% in Q3 2024.

Services remain dominant, now accounting for 53.02% of GDP. Trade activity fuels a substantial portion at 16.42%, hinting at consistent household consumption and retail spending, which is good. Real estate also demonstrated buoyancy, making up 13.36% of total output.

Telecommunications and Information Services – a critical component of any modern digital economy – contributes 7.67% to GDP, charting a strong real growth of 5.78%. It clearly underscores the sector’s increasing importance to overall productivity and connectivity. Professional, scientific, and technical services, alongside public administration, add 2.37% and 2.56% respectively, which implies a growing complexity in Nigeria’s service-oriented activities.

The oil sector’s contribution shrinks to only 3.80% of GDP, even though it remains vital for government revenue. Production of crude petroleum and natural gas increased to an average of 1.64 million barrels per day, up from 1.47 million the previous year. But the sector’s real growth of 5.84% showed some deceleration from prior periods. This illustrates that its relative importance to the aggregate economy is waning.

The industrial sector adds weight, particularly with food, beverage & tobacco manufacturing contributing 3.44%. Construction is still present with 3.03% amid ongoing infrastructure projects and private sector construction.

These figures present a somewhat rosy picture, it would seem, but there’s always more to the story.

Agriculture and services have provided stability, counteracting the slower development within specific manufacturing verticals. This is a good thing. Challenges such as inflation and security concerns are still a worry. The Q3 results do signal an economy steadily diversifying, increasingly buttressed by non-oil activities. This should give a firmer base for future expansion, in theory.

The rise of the non-oil sectors is a positive sign. Is this a permanent shift? I believe, yes, we are seeing a pivot of sorts.

Diversification has been a buzzword for years, but seeing it manifest in the GDP data provides a degree of optimism. Still, this isn’t a victory lap. The agricultural sector, while robust, grapples with issues of modernization, access to finance, and insecurity in farming regions. These problems will need fixing to unlock its full potential.

The service sector’s expansion hinges on a stable power supply and improved digital infrastructure. Power is still a big problem. The digital economy thrives on reliable internet, and widespread access.

Even with increased oil production, the sector’s reduced impact highlights the need for fiscal discipline. The government must utilize oil revenues strategically, investing in infrastructure and human capital, if it wants long-term prosperity.

These Q3 numbers offer a glimpse of progress, of a Nigeria less tethered to the volatile global oil market. Yet, sustained growth demands addressing fundamental issues, promoting inclusive development, and fostering an environment where all sectors can thrive. The journey is far from over, but at least we seem to be moving in the right direction.

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Keywords: Nigeria GDP, Nigeria economy, Non-oil sector, Agriculture Nigeria, Services sector Nigeria, Digital economy Nigeria, Oil production Nigeria, Economic diversification