The debate surrounding Nigeria’s inflation data has intensified, with experts questioning whether recent statistical overhauls truly reflect the nation’s severe cost of living crisis. Understanding Nigeria inflation explained is crucial for citizens and policymakers alike. Yemi Kale, a former statistics chief and architect of Nigeria’s 2014 GDP rebasing, warns that the new Consumer Price Index (CPI) framework might be masking the grim economic reality on the ground. Kale, now the group chief economist at the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), voiced his profound concerns.
Kale, a significant figure in Nigeria’s economic data landscape, having led the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for a decade, expressed his skepticism at the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) economic outlook. He specifically suggested that the NBS might have “rushed” its transition to a revised CPI framework, raising fundamental questions about data integrity and the accuracy of the reported figures.
The core of the issue lies in the rebasing of the CPI, which shifted the reference year from 2009 to 2024. This technical adjustment seemingly caused headline inflation to drop dramatically from over 34 percent to around 15 percent. However, this official reduction starkly contrasts with the everyday experiences of Nigerians who continue to face soaring market prices and diminishing purchasing power. Many are left wondering why is Nigeria’s cost of living rising despite official figures.
Kale emphasized the importance of statistical continuity, a standard practice requiring new and old data sets to align over a 12-month period to ensure functional comparability. By declaring previous inflation numbers non-comparable while simultaneously launching a new 2025 series, the NBS has inadvertently created an analytical gap, making year-on-year comparisons problematic and confusing for those trying to understand Nigeria CPI old vs new.
“How do you calculate year-on-year when you say the previous numbers are not comparable?” Kale queried, highlighting the methodological inconsistencies. He stressed that these are not minor issues but fundamental questions that demand clear and transparent answers from the statistical body. This lack of clarity hinders accurate economic assessment and public trust in vital economic indicators.
What is Nigeria’s inflation rate? The National Bureau of Statistics recently reported Nigeria’s headline inflation rate for December 2025 at 15.15 percent. This figure, however, reflects a specific methodological adjustment by the NBS to prevent a sharp spike that would have otherwise pushed the rate to 31.2 percent due to the CPI rebasing.
Adeyemi Adeniran, the current Statistician-General, explained that to avoid this perceived “spike,” the bureau moved away from using a single month (December 2024) as the base. Instead, they adopted a 12-month average of 2024 as the new reference point. This technical decision aimed to smooth out the transition but has simultaneously fueled skepticism among economists and the public regarding the true picture of inflation and its impact.
The implications of such data discrepancies extend beyond mere statistics, directly impacting the daily lives of citizens. A distorted view of inflation can lead to misguided policy decisions, failing to adequately address the severe economic pressures faced by households. Many are seeking a Nigeria economic outlook for beginners to grasp these complex issues and their real-world consequences.
Independent economic experts, including Yemi Kale, have consistently urged the government to abandon its defensive posture concerning these criticisms. Instead, they advocate for an open dialogue and a readiness to fix any structural errors in the data collection and reporting process. This includes carefully considering Yemi Kale comments on Nigeria inflation.
The demand for transparent and verifiable data is paramount, especially when discussing sensitive topics like the cost of living. Citizens need to trust the numbers presented by official bodies to make informed financial decisions and to hold their leaders accountable. This situation underscores the need for a comprehensive Nigeria cost of living crisis guide to help citizens navigate these challenging times.
The ongoing debate about Nigeria inflation explained highlights a critical juncture for the nation’s economic data integrity. With a rapidly growing population and significant economic challenges, having reliable statistics is not just an academic exercise; it is fundamental to national development, social stability, and fostering investor confidence when comparing, for example, cost of living Nigeria vs South Africa.
Looking ahead, the Nigeria inflation forecast 2026 will heavily depend on the transparency and accuracy of current data. If the underlying issues with the CPI framework are not addressed, future projections and economic planning could be severely compromised, perpetuating a cycle of uncertainty for investors and the general populace, potentially exacerbating the cost of living crisis Nigeria 2026.
Ultimately, the warnings from figures like Yemi Kale serve as a crucial reminder that statistical adjustments, while sometimes necessary, must be executed with utmost care and transparency. The true measure of economic health lies not just in the numbers, but in their credible reflection of the lived experiences of the people. Understanding Nigeria inflation explained remains vital for navigating the country’s economic future.
