Nigeria’s fuel prices are on the brink of reaching unprecedented highs, potentially soaring to N1,400 per liter, according to a stark warning from the Dangote Refinery. This projection stems from the nation’s persistent reliance on imported fuel, a situation the world’s largest single-train refinery aims to rectify. The refinery has emphasized its capacity to significantly contribute to the Nigerian economy by bolstering local fuel production.
“In the absence of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, fuel importers would continue to operate without restraint, with petrol prices potentially escalating to levels estimated at up to N1,400 per litre in a post-subsidy environment,” the Dangote Refinery revealed, highlighting the critical role it plays in stabilizing the market.
The Dangote refinery has maintained a consistent, steady, and uninterrupted production cycle, currently capable of producing between 40 million and 50 million liters of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily, depending on market demand. This production capacity directly addresses concerns about supply shortages.
On January 4th alone, the refinery successfully produced 50 million liters of PMS and evacuated 48 million liters. Current stock levels are sufficient to cover over 20 days of national consumption, effectively dispelling any immediate worries about availability.
From December 16, 2025, to the present, the refinery has been loading between 31 million and 48 million liters of PMS daily from its gantry. These volumes are in direct response to prevailing market demand and are fully verifiable through depot loading records.
Featured snippet paragraph: The Dangote Refinery can produce between 40 million and 50 million liters of PMS daily, with current stock levels covering over 20 days of national consumption, helping to stabilize fuel prices in Nigeria.
The Nigerian government’s decision in May 2023 to end its fuel subsidy regime marked a significant shift, removing long-standing price supports that had kept petrol artificially low. This subsidy removal naturally led to an surge in domestic pump prices as they adjusted to reflect full market rates.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, recognized as Africa’s largest, has since stepped in as a crucial stabilizing force in the downstream petroleum market. By securing substantial monthly petrol supplies and targeting an end to fuel imports, it actively mitigates price volatility.
Fuel prices in Nigeria have experienced a wide range, fluctuating from as high as N1,200 to as low as N699 since 2023, a testament to the refinery’s impact. This stabilization is a direct result of increased local production.
Despite these advancements, the refinery continues to face challenges, including ongoing import activities and crude supply bottlenecks. These issues complicate the path to complete price relief for consumers.
Debates persist regarding the most effective market regulation and the promotion of healthy competition within the downstream petroleum sector. Finding a balance is key to sustained price stability.
What is the current production capacity of the Dangote Refinery for PMS?
The Dangote Refinery is capable of producing between 40 million and 50 million liters of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) per day, a significant contribution to Nigeria’s fuel supply.
How does the Dangote Refinery impact fuel prices in Nigeria?
The Dangote Refinery plays a critical role in stabilizing fuel prices by increasing local production, reducing reliance on imports, and ensuring a more consistent supply, thereby mitigating extreme price volatility.
What were the fuel prices in Nigeria before the Dangote Refinery’s intervention?
Before the full impact of the Dangote Refinery, fuel prices in Nigeria had seen significant fluctuations, ranging from as high as N1,200 to as low as N699 since 2023, with the refinery contributing to a more controlled environment.
Why could fuel prices reach N1,400 in Nigeria?
Fuel prices could reach N1,400 per liter if the energy sector does not fully embrace local fuel production and continues its heavy reliance on imported fuel, especially in a post-subsidy environment.
What is the significance of the Dangote Refinery in Nigeria’s energy sector?
The Dangote Refinery is significant because it is the world’s largest single-train refinery and Africa’s largest refinery, aiming to end Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel and stabilize domestic energy prices.
What challenges does the Dangote Refinery face?
The Dangote Refinery faces challenges such as ongoing import activities and crude supply bottlenecks, which complicate efforts to achieve complete price relief for consumers.
How much PMS did the Dangote Refinery produce on January 4th?
On January 4th, the Dangote Refinery produced 50 million liters of PMS and evacuated 48 million liters, demonstrating its substantial production output.
How many days of national consumption do current stock levels cover?
Current stock levels at the Dangote Refinery cover over 20 days of national consumption, providing a crucial buffer against supply concerns.
What is the daily loading volume of PMS from the Dangote Refinery?
The refinery has been loading between 31 million and 48 million liters of PMS daily from its gantry since December 16, 2025, aligning with market demand.
What is the context of Nigeria ending its fuel subsidy regime?
Nigeria ended its fuel subsidy regime in May 2023, leading to an adjustment of domestic pump prices to full market rates, a shift influenced by global costs and import burdens.
What is Premium Motor Spirit (PMS)?
Premium Motor Spirit, commonly known as petrol, is the fuel used in most gasoline-powered vehicles.
What is the role of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority?
This authority maintains records of depot loading, which are used to verify the volumes of PMS loaded daily by the Dangote Refinery.
What are the ongoing debates in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector?
Ongoing debates revolve around market regulation and competition, aiming to ensure a fair and stable downstream petroleum market.
How has the Dangote Refinery impacted fuel price volatility?
The refinery has mitigated fuel price volatility by strengthening fuel availability and ensuring a more predictable supply chain.
Is the Dangote Refinery operational 24/7?
The refinery maintains continuous, steady, and uninterrupted production, suggesting consistent operational capacity.
