Thanksgiving Travel 2025: Are Record Projections Too Good to Be True?

AAA is predicting nearly 82 million Americans will journey 50 miles or more from home this Thanksgiving. That’s a hefty increase, setting a new high mark for holiday travel. People are eager to connect with loved ones, braving crowded airports and congested roadways. But should we accept these projections at face value? Having observed travel trends for years, a bit of skepticism seems warranted.

The headline? Road trips still reign supreme. About 73 million people are expected to drive, comprising almost 90% of Thanksgiving travelers. It’s up by a million over last year. That said, this figure hinges on whether air travelers, rattled by recent flight disruptions, opt for the open road instead. So, potentially, even more cars.
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Interestingly, rental car prices are reportedly down 15% compared to last year. Hertz, a major player, anticipates the busiest pick-up day will be the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. The most in-demand rental markets include Orlando, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and Newark. Could savings drive even more travelers to rent? It’s a valid thought.

At the pump, gas prices mirror last year’s averages, hovering around $3.06 per gallon. A full tank is recommended before hitting the road. AAA also advises checking battery and tire pressure. During last Thanksgiving, AAA came to the rescue of nearly 600,000 stranded motorists. Dead batteries, flat tires, and fuel depletion were some of the problems they dealt with.

Another serious concern, the dangers of impaired driving during the holidays. AAA and MADD remind people to be responsible. From 2019 to 2023, more than a third of all traffic fatalities during Thanksgiving involved drunk drivers. Having a solid plan in advance is key – rideshares, designated drivers, or public transit. Safety first, always.
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Turning to air travel, approximately 6 million Americans are expected to fly domestically for Thanksgiving. A slight increase of 2% from 2024, but it could drop. Why? Lingering effects from recent flight cancellations could send people scurrying for alternatives. Historically, air travel numbers for Thanksgiving, aside from the anomaly of 2020, have hovered between 5 and 6 million.

AAA data suggests a roundtrip domestic flight is averaging $700, similar to last year. Flying on Thanksgiving Day itself is cheaper. Still, the homeward-bound flights, particularly on Sunday and Monday, inflate ticket prices. Some travelers are tweaking trip lengths to avoid flying on peak days. This may affect those averages some.

Other modes of transport are also gaining traction. The projection indicates a growth of 8.5%, bringing the total to almost 2.5 million people using buses, trains, and cruises. Buses and trains might see a surge in last-minute reservations.

Cruises are leveraging post-pandemic growth. AAA is predicting 20.7 million American cruise passengers this year alone, and an even higher 21.7 million for 2026. The Caribbean is an especially enticing Thanksgiving destination for cruises. The appealing climate, pre-paid nature, and diverse entertainment make it attractive for families.

Where is everyone heading? Florida dominates the domestic list, due to its theme parks and cruise ports. Internationally, Europe, the Caribbean, and even Australia, with its spring weather, are hot spots. Paris, Amsterdam, and Vienna are prime European draws.

Traffic is always a headache. INRIX anticipates that Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons before Thanksgiving will be the worst. Returning home on Sunday? Expect congestion throughout the day. Hitting the road early is the best bet. Of course, construction, accidents, and weather could play havoc with any plan.

Digging into INRIX’s data reveals specific problem areas. The worst time to travel from Los Angeles to Bakersfield is on Wednesday evening, with travel times potentially increasing by 147%. Similarly, New Yorkers heading to the Hamptons on Tuesday afternoon could see travel times balloon by 163%. These are not minor inconveniences.

It’s important to understand the methodology behind these forecasts. S&P Global Market Intelligence, in conjunction with AAA, utilizes economic variables such as employment rates, household net worth, and travel-specific data, including gas prices and hotel occupancy. This model forecasts domestic travel volumes, dating back to 2000. But it’s still a forecast.

Historical travel volume data comes from MMGY’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM, a study surveying over 50,000 U.S. households monthly. This provides insights into travel behavior, spending habits, and trends. This helps paint a picture of past behaviors.

Keep in mind that AAA’s forecasts focus solely on domestic leisure travel. These numbers aren’t directly comparable to TSA passenger screening data. TSA includes both domestic and international travelers, regardless of whether they’re traveling for business or pleasure. AAA focuses on person-trips encompassing the entire round-trip travel. Apples and oranges.

INRIX’s methodology blends statistical models with real-world traffic data. This forecasts travel conditions on major routes. Their model uses connected vehicle GPS data, mobile apps, roadside sensors, and commercial fleet telematics. This provides insight for travelers and agencies.

Defining the Thanksgiving travel period is important. It includes the seven-day stretch from Tuesday, November 25th, to Monday, December 1st, 2025. AAA’s forecast was finalized the week of October 20th, 2025.

So, what’s the takeaway? While the projection of record Thanksgiving travel is exciting, it’s vital to look beyond the headlines. Various factors, such as potential shifts from air travel to road trips and the reliability of predictive models, can influence the ultimate outcome. Travelers should plan ahead, prioritize safety, and stay informed about possible traffic snafus. Because even the most sophisticated forecasts can’t predict every twist and turn on the road.

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