Can Nigeria’s Cassava Ambition Flourish? Examining the HQCF Supply Challenge

Nigeria’s renewed push for a 20% inclusion of High-Quality Cassava Flour (HQCF) in industrial flour production by 2025 is generating buzz. The Cassava Flour (Mandatory Inclusion in Flour Production) Bill, 2022, signifies a strong governmental intent to weave local cassava into the industrial fabric. It seems like the country wants to leverage cassava to its full potential.

The potential economic upside is substantial. Projections from the Nigeria Cassava Investment Accelerator (NCIA) suggest that even a small increase from the current 1% HQCF inclusion to the proposed 20% could catapult the market to a staggering US$1.18 billion by 2030. This is not just about flour; it is about activating a whole supply chain and fostering industrial expansion.

Right now, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the primary consumers of HQCF, especially those in the bread and baked goods sector. We are talking about artisanal bakers who purchase HQCF in open markets and tinker with 5-30% blends, partly to cut costs and partly to align with government incentives. The fragmented nature of this market is something to keep in mind, even as the bread segment dangles the most accessible opportunity, potentially representing 351,000 tons and US$236 million in revenue.

Yet, this ambition faces significant headwinds. The NCIA points out that, despite the policy support, the HQCF market remains underdeveloped. Demand exists, but the critical impediment lies in inconsistent and unreliable supply.

Buyers routinely express concerns about quality, price, and consistent availability. Many local processors struggle to meet industrial benchmarks for granulation, moisture content, and shelf life, all essential for large-scale baking. These shortcomings often stem from underinvestment in quality control, fragmented production methodologies, and insufficient standardized processing infrastructure.

Then there is the pricing puzzle. HQCF can be around 9% pricier than wheat flour, largely due to inefficient feedstock sourcing, underdeveloped logistics, and weak coordination. Without significant scale and cost optimization, processors struggle to offer a product that can compete, which, in turn, threatens buyer confidence and undermines policy objectives. I have seen similar patterns in other agricultural initiatives; good intentions alone don’t guarantee success.

Unlocking the potential of this market will require more than just regulations. It calls for targeted innovation across the entire value chain, from processing technologies to innovative input supply models. Investments in research and development (R&D) are crucial to create recipes suited to Nigerian tastes. I wonder if the industry is dedicating enough resources to this. Cassava chips offer a promising starting point, offering better shelf life and simpler logistics. This allows pre-processing closer to the farms, which addresses some of the current system’s main stumbling blocks.

Some promising signals are emerging. Processors like Sofari are investing in chip-based methods to enhance handling, drying, and product consistency. Research institutions like IITA are engineering cassava varieties better suited for flour production. Still, achieving full market potential will require heightened coordination, greater scale, and sustained investment. Translation of innovation into tangible impact is key.

The opportunity is evident. However, absent structural shifts in supply dynamics, even the most robust policy interventions may prove insufficient to transform HQCF into Nigeria’s next major industrial success. Policy can nudge, but it is the market that decides.

It’s worth noting that focusing solely on bread might be too narrow. Exploring other industrial applications for HQCF, such as in the adhesive or textile industries, could create alternative demand streams and reduce reliance on a single sector. This diversification could help stabilize the market and make it more resilient to fluctuations in wheat prices or consumer preferences.

Another area to consider is the role of smallholder farmers. While large-scale processors are crucial for meeting industrial demand, integrating smallholder farmers into the HQCF value chain can boost rural incomes and promote inclusive growth. This requires providing them with access to improved cassava varieties, training on best agricultural practices, and fair prices for their produce. It is about creating a system that benefits everyone, not just the big players.

Also, quality control must be prioritized from the farm level. Implementing rigorous quality standards and certification programs can help ensure that the cassava entering the processing stream meets the required specifications. This involves educating farmers on proper harvesting, handling, and storage techniques to minimize post-harvest losses and maintain the quality of the raw material.

The government’s role in facilitating access to finance for processors and farmers cannot be overstated. Providing subsidized loans, grants, or credit guarantees can enable them to invest in modern equipment, improve processing capacity, and adopt sustainable agricultural practices. A well-designed financial support system can act as a catalyst for growth and attract private sector investment into the HQCF value chain.

In any case, it’s a complex equation. No single solution will magically unlock the cassava’s potential. Success hinges on a multi-faceted approach that addresses supply chain inefficiencies, enhances product quality, promotes market diversification, empowers smallholder farmers, and fosters collaboration between government, industry, and research institutions. Only then can Nigeria truly achieve its HQCF ambition and unlock the full economic benefits of its cassava resources.

Read Original

Keywords: Nigeria cassava, HQCF flour, cassava flour, HQCF supply, cassava processing, cassava market, cassava SMEs, cassava investment