The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has delivered a significant Naira to dollar forecast 2026, projecting the local currency to stabilize and trade at N1,480 against the US dollar. This forward-looking outlook arrives amidst Nigeria’s ongoing macroeconomic reforms, which are concurrently expected to bolster the nation’s external reserves to a robust $52 billion. This crucial update from the private sector-led think tank offers a detailed medium-term perspective on Nigeria’s economic trajectory, underscoring the vital importance of consolidating recent stabilization efforts to achieve sustainable growth.
Beyond the currency projections, the NESG’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, titled ‘Consolidating Economic Stabilisation Gains: Pathway to Sustainable Growth in Nigeria’, also forecasts a 16 percent inflation rate for the current year, with a significant reduction to single-digit inflation of between 8 and 10 percent by 2027. Furthermore, the group anticipates an impressive economic growth rate of approximately 5.5 percent in 2026. These positive projections are largely attributed to improved macroeconomic coordination and a anticipated stronger output from Nigeria’s key productive sectors.
What is NESG Nigeria? The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) is a private sector-led, non-profit, and non-partisan think tank dedicated to fostering a competitive and sustainable business environment in Nigeria. It serves as a crucial platform for public-private dialogue, driving evidence-based economic reforms and providing rigorous analysis to policymakers, businesses, and the public.
Speaking at the launch event in Lagos, Olaniyi Yusuf, Chairman of the NESG, articulated that Nigeria is currently navigating a pivotal transition phase. This period demands a strategic shift from merely short-term crisis management to the deliberate construction of resilient systems capable of delivering sustained productivity gains across the economy. Understanding Nigerian economic reforms explained by the NESG highlights this critical pivot towards long-term structural improvements.
Yusuf described the consolidation phase as the medium-term stage where economic stability must not only be strengthened but also effectively translated into tangible economic outputs. He characterized it as the essential structural bridge connecting initial reforms with concrete results. The gains derived from reduced macroeconomic disruption, he emphasized, must now be purposefully leveraged to dismantle long-standing bottlenecks that have historically constrained output, discouraged investment, and hampered overall competitiveness within the nation.
For Nigeria, consolidation necessitates a fundamental transformation in policy emphasis. Yusuf stressed that policy must evolve from inconsistency across various sectors to achieving comprehensive coherence, from merely firefighting immediate issues to diligently building robust economic systems, and from implementing short-term fixes to fostering enduring institutional strengthening. This holistic approach is critical for long-term prosperity.
The 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook meticulously identifies several pillars deemed critical for successful consolidation, placing a strong emphasis on proper sequencing of reforms, unwavering fiscal and policy discipline, and a pragmatic realism in implementation. While acknowledging that reform fatigue remains a genuine risk among the populace and stakeholders, Yusuf issued a stark warning that any reversal of these hard-won reforms would undeniably incur far greater costs for the economy in the long run. The latest NESG economic outlook update underscores the importance of staying the course.
Yusuf further elaborated that Nigeria’s economic performance throughout 2024 and 2025 was predominantly shaped by significant policy adjustments and necessary corrections. These decisive actions were specifically aimed at addressing deep-rooted distortions prevalent in the foreign exchange regime, the energy pricing framework, and the broader monetary conditions. These reforms, though challenging, were deemed unavoidable steps towards a more stable economic future.
He underscored that stabilization, as meticulously defined by the NESG, transcends a mere temporary intervention; it represents a foundational process fundamentally focused on restoring macroeconomic predictability and substantially reducing systemic volatility. In Nigeria’s unique context, this imperative involved directly confronting persistent inflationary pressures, pervasive exchange rate instability, and critical fiscal imbalances to establish a solid and stable base for sustained economic activity.
Drawing insights from the economy’s performance in 2025, Yusuf noted that early, promising signals of stabilization had already begun to emerge. Nigeria, he observed, was gradually but steadily transitioning from an initial period of reform-induced dislocation to a more stable macroeconomic environment, even as certain structural weaknesses continue to require attention. The Nigerian external reserves latest figures are a key indicator of this stabilization trend.
Also speaking at the launch, Olusegun Omisakin, chief economist and director of research and development at NESG, affirmed that the group’s projections for 2026 are firmly grounded in its comprehensive medium-term macroeconomic framework, which extends all the way to 2029. He explained that the 2026 outlook places a particularly strong emphasis on the pivotal roles of agriculture and manufacturing as primary growth drivers. These are considered the best sectors to invest in Nigeria for sustainable expansion.
Omisakin clarified that their projections align seamlessly with the broader framework established from 2026 through 2029. For 2026, by strategically emphasizing enhanced productivity in agriculture and manufacturing, the NESG firmly believes the economy is well-positioned to achieve a robust growth rate of 5.5 percent, building confidently on the estimated 5 percent growth witnessed in the previous year under an optimistic scenario. This optimistic Nigerian economy growth 2026 hinges on several factors.
He further added that sustaining this projected growth trajectory would heavily depend on unwavering policy consistency, disciplined and effective implementation of ongoing reforms, and continuous, concerted efforts to strengthen productive capacity across all key sectors of the economy. For those asking how to invest in Nigeria economy, understanding these foundational elements is crucial for long-term success.
The NESG’s comprehensive report provides a crucial lens through which to view the nation’s economic future. The Naira to dollar forecast 2026 of N1,480, coupled with rising reserves and falling inflation, paints a picture of cautious optimism. While some might question the naira forecast vs reality, and others may draw comparisons between NESG vs CBN projections, the NESG remains steadfast in its commitment to supporting Nigeria’s journey towards sustainable growth through diligent analysis and public-private collaboration, aiming for a prosperous future.
