The political landscape of Lagos State is experiencing a significant shift as former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode signals a potential return, fundamentally altering the dynamics of the upcoming 2027 general election. This Ambode political comeback is reportedly tied to strategic moves by key party power brokers, aiming to defer the governorship aspirations of Seyi Tinubu, son of President Bola Tinubu, until 2031. The intricate dance of power within the state’s dominant political party is creating a highly competitive environment, with various factions and high-profile aspirants vying for influence. As the state prepares for a new leader after Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu completes his second term, the re-emergence of Ambode introduces a complex layer to an already charged political atmosphere, prompting widespread discussion among political analysts and the electorate.
Seyi Tinubu had, until recently, been gaining considerable traction as a potential candidate for the Lagos State governorship. Youth organizations, diaspora groups, and various political platforms, including the Coalition of Nigerian Youth Leaders and The Future Platform, have openly expressed their support and urged him to declare his interest in the race. This groundswell of support highlighted a clear path for his entry into the political arena, suggesting a generational shift in leadership could be on the horizon. However, despite these vocal endorsements, Seyi Tinubu has maintained a low profile, neither officially declaring his ambition nor receiving any public endorsement from his father, President Bola Tinubu.
This lack of a formal declaration and public support has reportedly presented a dilemma for the Governance Advisory Council (GAC), the influential 30-member body that guides the state’s political direction. Insiders suggest that the GAC, led by Prince Tajudeen Olusi, is now seriously considering a pathway for Ambode to complete a second tenure. This strategic deferment of Seyi Tinubu’s bid to 2031 is viewed as a calculated move to maintain party continuity and avoid potential internal discord.
What is the Governance Advisory Council (GAC) in Lagos politics? The GAC is a powerful advisory body composed of influential elders and leaders within the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Lagos State. It plays a crucial role in shaping political decisions, endorsing candidates, and ensuring party cohesion and stability.
Ambode’s previous fallout with President Tinubu and the Lagos APC leadership before the 2019 election led to his denial of the party’s ticket, ultimately paving the way for Babajide Sanwo-Olu. However, sources close to the GAC indicate a shift in sentiment, with party leadership now considering his return. This move is seen as an attempt to reconcile past grievances and leverage Ambode’s experience, particularly to address rising discontent within the Epe district, his home base. The political implications of such a reconciliation are vast, potentially unifying different factions within the party.
Party leaders reportedly advised Seyi Tinubu to exercise patience and keep a low profile, focusing instead on supporting his father’s second-term ambitions in 2023. This counsel stemmed from concerns that his governorship aspiration could become a distraction, particularly given the growing opposition to the current federal government. An APC chieftain in Gbagada, Segun Badejo, confirmed that the party leadership viewed Seyi’s ambition as a potential source of division at a critical time. This strategic advice contributed to the delay in his official declaration.
Compounding the political calculations is the rising discontent within the Epe district, a crucial demographic in Lagos State. Stakeholders from Epe are reportedly upset over the circumstances surrounding Ambode’s ouster in 2019, feeling that their zone has been politically marginalized. Historically, past governors like Tinubu, Fashola, and Sanwo-Olu, all from Lagos Island, completed two terms. Ambode, the only governor from Epe, was denied a second term, fueling calls for greater political inclusion for the district. Despite recent federal appointments for individuals from Epe, the community demands a native governor to complete their perceived rightful tenure.
The decision by political power brokers is not seen as an attempt to sideline Seyi Tinubu permanently, but rather to ensure a more stable and strategic entry point for him in 2031. Sources emphasize the party’s desire to avoid a repeat of electoral challenges, such as the Labour Party’s strong showing against Tinubu in Lagos during the 2023 elections. The consensus is that Seyi needs to concentrate on mobilizing the youth for his father, and a governorship bid at this juncture could divide attention and provoke public outcry, especially with the optics of a father as president and a son as governor. Therefore, figures like Ambode or Tunji Alausa are seen as having a better chance of securing the party’s victory in 2027.
The 2027 Lagos governorship race is already attracting a host of heavyweights. Notable figures being touted for the top seat include Femi Gbajabiamila, Chief of Staff to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu; Mudashiru Obasa, the state assembly speaker; Senator Tokunbo Abiru; and Abdul-Azeez Adediran, popularly known as Jandor. These individuals represent various political interests and districts, promising a fierce contest for the party’s ticket and ultimately, the governorship itself. The emergence of so many strong candidates further underscores the complexity of the political chessboard.
Ultimately, the potential Ambode political comeback represents a strategic realignment within Lagos State’s political architecture. It reflects a delicate balancing act by the ruling party to manage internal aspirations, address regional grievances, and secure electoral success in the crucial 2027 polls while setting the stage for future leadership transitions. This evolving situation highlights the deep-seated power dynamics and strategic foresight employed by the state’s political kingmakers in shaping its future.
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