Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is set to review its inflation reporting methodology for the first time in 15 years, a significant move aimed at providing a more accurate reflection of economic realities. This critical adjustment comes after concerns that recent inflation figures might be artificially inflated due to the impact of a rebasing exercise. The NBS has announced plans to revise how it reports inflation, addressing a long-standing need for updated statistical practices.
The core of the issue lies in the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which adopted December 2024 as its index reference point. This change, the first in 15 years, is expected to exaggerate year-on-year inflation figures for December, without truly capturing prevailing market price movements. Officials from the NBS have clarified that the anticipated spike in December inflation is largely a statistical distortion, not a reflection of actual price increases experienced by consumers.
What is Nigeria’s inflation reporting methodology review?
The Nigeria Inflation Reporting Methodology Review is an initiative by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) to update and refine how inflation data is collected and presented. The primary goal is to ensure that reported inflation rates accurately reflect actual price changes in the economy, moving away from potential statistical distortions caused by outdated rebasing practices.
Analysts had projected a sharp rise in the headline inflation rate for December, potentially reaching around 30 percent from the 14.45 percent recorded in November. However, the NBS has cautioned the public against interpreting this projected figure as a true indicator of inflationary pressures. Ayo Anthony, Head of Prices at the NBS, emphasized that the widely reported 30 percent figure is merely a projection and not an official release from the bureau.
Anthony further explained that Nigeria’s consumer inflation had previously peaked at nearly 35 percent in December 2024. This rate then saw a significant easing following the rebasing exercise and a moderation in food prices. He reiterated that the observed spike is not the real inflation rate but an artificial one caused by the base effect from the rebasing.
To rectify this statistical anomaly, the statistics agency plans to implement a crucial change: replacing the current single-month index reference period with a 12-month reference period for 2024. This will allow for a more accurate representation of inflation over time, providing a clearer picture of economic trends.
“We are removing the single-month index reference period and replacing it with a 12-month reference period for 2024 to report actual inflation,” Anthony stated. He elaborated that while some countries, like South Africa and Kenya, utilize a one-month base, Nigeria’s volatile price movements make such a model unsuitable for its unique economic realities.
Before this most recent exercise, Nigeria’s inflation data had not been rebased since 2009. Bonaventure Nwosu, Head of Communications at the NBS, informed Reuters that the extensive 15-year gap between rebasing cycles has amplified the base effect currently being observed. This lag contributes to the statistical distortion.
“We haven’t rebased in 15 years, so some of the base effect playing out is due to that lag. Whatever spike you see for December is a one-off and should not be interpreted as real inflation. From January 2026, figures will normalise and reflect actual market conditions,” Nwosu explained. The bureau is confident that the revised methodology will offer a more credible and transparent view of inflationary pressures within Africa’s most populous nation.
This review of inflation reporting is vital for policymakers, businesses, and citizens alike, ensuring that economic decisions are based on accurate and up-to-date data. The move signals a commitment to statistical integrity and improved economic forecasting for Nigeria.
How to understand Nigeria’s inflation reporting changes? Understanding the changes in Nigeria’s inflation reporting methodology is crucial for interpreting economic data accurately. The core adjustment involves moving from a single-month reference point to a 12-month period for 2024. This aims to eliminate artificial spikes caused by rebasing, providing a more realistic view of price increases. The NBS assures that by January 2026, reporting will normalize and reflect true market conditions, making it easier to assess the country’s economic health.
What is Nigeria’s inflation reporting methodology review?
Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is undertaking a review of its inflation reporting methodology to ensure accuracy and relevance in reflecting economic conditions. This process involves updating the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebasing and reference periods, moving from a single-month base to a 12-month average for 2024 to mitigate statistical distortions. The goal is to provide a clearer and more credible picture of inflationary pressures.
Nigeria inflation reporting vs. Kenya inflation reporting: A comparative analysis reveals that while Kenya may use a one-month base for its inflation reporting, Nigeria’s economic volatility necessitates a different approach. The NBS is shifting to a 12-month reference period for 2024 to better capture its unique market dynamics. This highlights the importance of tailoring statistical methods to specific national economic contexts.
Best inflation reporting practices for developing economies guide: For developing economies, adopting a 12-month reference period for inflation reporting can offer greater stability and accuracy. This approach, as Nigeria is moving towards, helps to smooth out short-term fluctuations and provides a more reliable measure of persistent price trends. It is a key step towards robust economic data collection.
Nigeria inflation reporting 2026: By January 2026, Nigeria’s inflation figures are expected to normalize and accurately reflect market conditions following the implementation of the revised methodology. This future-oriented adjustment aims to ensure that economic data moving forward will be a true indicator of inflation, free from previous distortions.
Nigeria inflation reporting explained: The current situation in Nigeria regarding inflation reporting is complex due to a recent rebasing exercise. The NBS is clarifying that projected December inflation figures are artificially inflated and not reflective of real price movements. The planned shift to a 12-month reference period for 2024 will provide a more accurate and understandable picture of inflation going forward.
Why is Nigeria reviewing inflation reporting? Nigeria is reviewing its inflation reporting methodology because the recent rebasing of the Consumer Price Index has created statistical distortions, leading to potentially misleading inflation figures. The NBS aims to provide a more accurate and credible representation of actual price movements in the economy, ensuring better economic decision-making.
Latest Nigeria inflation news: The latest Nigeria inflation news indicates that the National Bureau of Statistics is revising its methodology to address distortions from a recent rebasing. This proactive step is crucial for providing reliable economic data. The changes are expected to lead to normalized figures from January 2026.
Nigeria inflation reporting update: An update on Nigeria’s inflation reporting reveals that the NBS is moving to a 12-month reference period for 2024 to report inflation accurately. This is a significant step to overcome the base effects caused by rebasing after a 15-year gap.
Nigeria inflation reporting 2026 guide: This guide to Nigeria’s inflation reporting in 2026 anticipates a period of normalized and accurate data. Following the methodology review and implementation, figures from January 2026 onwards will reflect true market conditions, providing a stable basis for economic analysis and planning.
Inflation reporting is a crucial aspect of economic governance, and Nigeria’s proactive steps to refine its methodology demonstrate a commitment to transparency and data integrity. The anticipated normalization of figures from 2026 onwards will be a welcome development for all stakeholders.
