Nigeria’s monthly inflation rate accelerated to its highest point in four months in November 2025, driven by increased demand during year-end festivities and persistent insecurity challenges. The month-on-month headline inflation climbed to 1.22 percent, a notable increase from the previous month, signaling renewed price pressures despite a continued annual decline.

Food prices were the primary catalyst for this uptick, with month-on-month food inflation reaching 1.13 percent. This rise is attributed to the escalating costs of essential food items such as tomatoes, cassava, and various spices, exacerbated by supply chain disruptions and seasonal purchasing patterns.

Despite the monthly surge, the year-on-year headline inflation rate continued its downward trajectory for the eighth consecutive month, settling at 14.45 percent. This annual easing reflects broader economic adjustments and the impact of previous monetary policies, though it masks the immediate pressures felt by consumers.

Analysts anticipate that this upward trend in monthly inflation is likely to persist into December, influenced by ongoing holiday spending and logistical challenges. However, some experts project a potential moderation in early 2026 if security improves and food supply chains stabilize.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also saw a slight monthly increase to 1.28 percent, though its year-on-year figure declined. This indicates that underlying inflationary pressures beyond immediate seasonal factors remain a concern for policymakers.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report also highlighted significant regional disparities in inflation rates. While some states experienced substantial monthly price increases, others recorded decreases, underscoring the uneven impact of economic conditions across the country.

The Presidency has credited President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms for the sustained annual inflation decline, stating that the country has surpassed its 2025 inflation target. Officials emphasized that the reduction from 16.05 percent in October to 14.45 percent in November is a testament to disciplined economic management.

However, public analysts caution that the monthly inflation figures present a more nuanced picture, revealing that underlying price pressures have not fully subsided. They point to the vulnerability of markets to seasonal swings and supply chain disruptions, particularly for essential food items that form the largest portion of household expenditure.

The government has been urged to maintain its focus on bolstering security in food-producing regions to ensure uninterrupted supply and drive down inflation sustainably. Such measures are considered crucial for achieving long-term price stability and supporting inclusive economic growth.

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Keywords: Nigeria inflation, month-on-month inflation, food prices, year-end festivities, economic reforms, NBS CPI report, core inflation, seasonal inflation